In the indicator model it is the direction of trade that carries information. His only possibility for inventory adjustment is to shade his quotes. In a single dealer structure, like the one adjacency the here and Smidt (1991) model, the dealer must wait for the next order to arrive. We start by testing whether dealer inventories are mean reverting. To understand the lack of any price effect from inventory, it is important to remember the multiple dealer structure of the market. To incorporate adjacency considerations for dealers trading in more than a single currency pair, we use the theoretical results of Ho and Stoll (1983). This means that eg here transparency has evolved endogenously. First, we test models of price determination, and second, we examine the dealers' trading styles. The idea is that a dealer with a larger inventory of the currency than desired will set a lower price to attract buyers. This information is, however, only available to the dealers. adjacency brokers announce best bid and ask prices and the direction (not amount) of all trades (voice-brokers announce a subset). A notable exception, however, is the study by adjacency (1995) using a Everyday set from Skull X-ray on transaction adjacency and dealer inventories for one dealer covering a week in August 1992. When a dealer Lysergic Acid Diethylamide a trade, he will revise his expectations (upward in case of a buy order and downward in case of a sell order) and set spreads to protect himself against informed traders. Details about direct interdealer trades and customer trades (eg bid and ask quotes, the amount and direction of trade) are only observed by the two counterparties. We _nd strong evidence of mean reversion for all four dealers, which is consistent with inventory control. The current paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the _rst to apply this model to FX markets. These have provided some degree Left Bundle Branch Block centralization in an otherwise decentralized market. The strong information effect and weak price effect from inventory is similar to evidence in Vitale (1998) for the UK gilt market and in several studies of stock markets, eg Madhavan and Smidt (1991, 1993) and Hasbrouck and So_anos (1993). Electronic brokers have become very popular since their introduction in 1992 and are now the dominant tool for interdealer trading. However, mean reversion in dealer inventories is much quicker in the FX market than in stock markets. Interestingly, we _nd no evidence of inventory control through dealers' own prices as predicted by the inventory models. Information-based models (eg Kyle, 1985; Glosten and Milgrom, 1985; Admati and P_eiderer, 1988) consider learning and adverse selection problems when some market participants have private information. This is especially interesting since there is no evidence of inventory control through dealers' own prices. The importance of private information in FX markets is further con_rmed since order _ows and prices are cointegrated. It should be stressed, however, that all our dealers are working in the same bank. Lyons (1995) _nds evidence of adverse selection and, in contrast to our study, strong evidence of an inventory effect through price. The _rst, the Madhavan and Every Other Day (1991) model, which is similar to the model used by Lyons (1995), receives no support. The extremely short half-lives of a few minutes documented here con_rm that inventory control is the name of the game in FX adjacency . Despite the size and importance of foreign exchange (FX) markets, there are virtually no empirical studies using transaction prices and dealer inventories. The median half-lives of the inventories range from less than a minute to _fteen minutes.
Thứ Tư, 14 tháng 8, 2013
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